As we get started in the 2012 election cycle, a number of polls and surveys are floating around asking who your favorite candidate is. Given that many of these polls can be subjective to the questions asked and who is being asked. Some polls sample groups as large as 1,000, is that large enough to get a realistic view of that people are thinking? To date, I’ve only been involved in less than a handful of polls regarding political preferences and that been over the phone.
In Hawai’i, many people will blindly vote to reelect Obama and the reasons range from; he was born here, to, I really like the free government stuff. However, a lot can happen between now and December 2012. As the cost of food, gas, and other necessities keep rising, along with unemployment, the changes for any incumbent to be reelected becomes slim to none. But after all, Hawai’i did vote in a “Tax and Spend” Governor. So much for objective and responsible voting.
The Republican field of candidates remains large. To date, there are some 26 potential contenders for the President of the United States. Some of the candidates are serious, some are just wishful, and some are just a joke. Assuming that Obama will go unchallenged by his own party, the polling focus will be on who the Republican favorite will be to challenge Obama.
For weeks, polls have been focused on a candidate’s favorable rating. Usually they poll about ~1,000 people, but often times they never give the demographics. Even when they do, it’s sometimes hard to really get a good picture of where and how distributed the polling data is gathered. For example, a poll was done about Sarah Palin’s negativity numbers. They sampled about 700 people. Where? In Long Island, NY, a liberal enclave of democrats.
HotAir.com Greenroom writer, Patrick Ishmael, has developed a unique way of visualizing polling data. Using a program called Tableau to take the collected polling data and creating a graphic display of the results. The information collected from the individual is done once. The Zip Code and Telephone Area code is captured to get the geographic location of the polled individual, along with other information such as age and sex. The next series of questions has the polled individual responding to their Presidential favorite, Vice Presidential, alternate if their favorite doesn’t run, and a series of questions based on political ideology. You don’t have to be registered with Hot Air to take the poll, and the poll is designed to prevent the democrat practice of voting often. This way the polling data collected is reasonably an accurate reflection of the individual. Over 6,000 responded!
Each candidate in the poll is color coded to easily recognize the geographic location of those responding to the poll. You can click on the candidates name on the list on the left to filter out the other candidates. The map allows to pan and zoom into locations to a more detailed view. Additionally, hover your cursor over any of the color coded circles displays the Presidential preference and the Zip Code. In addition to a plethora of graphs and charts that breaks down the polling data into easy to see, the data can be combined with past polling data to see trends.
While the 48 contiguous states are displayed, the map controls all you to see the States of Alaska and Hawai’i. I had always wondered if there were other people in Hawai’i that were Hot Air readers, and apparently there are quite a few.
There were more Hot Air readers in the State of Hawai’i than I had ever imagined. I knew of some readers on O’Ahu, but I had no idea there were readers on Moloka’i! In previous poll maps, there was at least one reader on Kaua’i Island, that didn’t show up on this round of polling. However, Maui and Moloka’i was a surprise.
Here’s my humble contribution to the polling data. One thing is for sure, for each poll that was conducted, a clear winner has constantly surfaced, and that has been Gov. Sarah Palin, and by very wide margins. In this round of polling, out of the 6,000+ polled, the former Alaskan Governor garnered a health lead of 27% of the votes. This has not been the first poll where Sarah Palin came out on top.
Again, since these polls have been conducted, the winner each time has been Gov. Sarah Palin, by a wide margin. The other potential candidates seem to ebb and flow with the political tides.
Why has Sarah Palin been at the top of each of these polls? I really don’t know given the swath of Hot Air reader’s views, especially in the comment sections.
I admit that if Sarah Palin does decide to run, I will vote for her. However, there are some really solid candidates that I would consider should Sarah Palin not run for President of the United States.
However, it way too early, in my view, for anyone to determine who will be the eventual front runner, that will defeat Obama in 2012. Also, there are some candidates that are just pure jokes, such as Donald Trump, who is nothing more than a circus clown vying for attention. As we get closer to the Fall, and into the 2012 New Year, a front runner will eventually appear. Till then, it’s anyone race.
From what I can gather, there are Hot Air readers that participated in this poll located on the Big Island Hawai’i in Mountain View, Na’alehu, Captain Cook, Kailua-Kona, and Waikoloa Village, besides me in Kea’au. It’s refreshing to learn there are more like minded people here than I’ve ever imagined.